Morning Market Setup
| S&P 500 futures+0.1% to +0.2% | Nasdaq 100 futures+0.6% to +0.7% |
| Dow futures+0.1% to +0.2% | Russell 2000 contextSmall-cap tone firm, not leading |
| 10-year TreasuryNear 4.67%-4.68%, steady to firmer | U.S. Dollar IndexSlightly stronger; yen weakness in focus |
| WTI / Brent crudeWTI +2.0% near $81.90; Brent +2.5% | Gold / BitcoinGold +0.7%; BTC near $63,626 |
U.S. futures are pointing higher as Palantir's earnings reset the AI-software tape and keep Nasdaq futures ahead of the broader market. The setup is not purely risk-on: crude is rebounding after a ship reports being struck near the Strait of Hormuz, the dollar is slightly firmer as yen-intervention effects fade, and traders are waiting for 10 a.m. ET JOLTS and factory-orders data. The strongest equity read-throughs are AI software, data-center power, selected chips, and machinery. The pressure points are streaming earnings quality, some international bank reactions, and any fresh Middle East shipping headline that lifts energy costs before the open.
Sector & Theme Watch
AI software is bid after Palantir reports record growth, raises guidance, and trades more than 15% higher while Nasdaq 100 futures outpace the Dow and S&P 500. Why it matters: the report directly challenges the recent worry that enterprise AI spending is not converting into software revenue. What to watch: whether buyers extend from PLTR into security, database, and cloud-software names or fade the move into Friday's jobs data.
Power and infrastructure exposure is trading with a constructive AI read-through as Caterpillar gaps higher on generator and turbine demand and onsemi rises after a beat and stronger AI data-center revenue outlook. Why it matters: AI capex is moving beyond GPU makers into power conversion, cooling, backup generation, and site capacity. What to watch: AMD's post-close data-center guidance and whether power-equipment orders support the next leg in industrial AI names.
Energy exposure is firming as WTI and Brent rebound after a cargo ship reports being hit near the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran messaging stays contradictory. Why it matters: a fresh shipping-risk premium can quickly lift producer cash-flow expectations while pressuring fuel-sensitive transports and consumer names. What to watch: UKMTO/AP updates, tanker traffic through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, and whether crude holds above the Monday recovery range.
Logistics real estate is getting a fresh M&A marker as Prologis agrees to buy Segro in an $18.8 billion deal that expands its European warehouse and data-center footprint. Why it matters: the transaction puts a public valuation on scarce logistics assets tied to e-commerce, reshoring, and AI infrastructure demand. What to watch: PLD's opening reaction, London shareholder support, and any read-through into U.S. industrial REIT pricing.
Premarket Trading
Stocks in Focus
Palantir is gapping more than 15% higher after Q2 revenue nearly doubles to $1.94 billion and management lifts 2026 revenue guidance to roughly $8.15 billion. U.S. commercial demand and government revenue are both accelerating. Why it matters: PLTR is the cleanest AI-software proof point on the tape. What to watch: whether the open holds above the initial gap and how management frames AI-sovereignty demand.
Caterpillar is gapping 7.6% higher after Q2 earnings of $8.17 a share and revenue of $20.5 billion clear estimates, with power and energy demand tied to AI data centers doing the heavy lifting. Why it matters: CAT is turning AI infrastructure spending into a Dow industrial earnings story. What to watch: generator backlog, margin durability, and any comment on data-center permitting risk.
onsemi is trading about 6% higher after Q2 revenue of $1.604 billion and adjusted EPS of 74 cents beat estimates, while Q3 guidance points to sequential improvement. Management highlights AI data-center revenue as a faster-growing power-solutions driver. Why it matters: ON gives the AI trade a power-semiconductor read-through beyond GPUs. What to watch: Q3 midpoint, automotive demand, and Synaptics integration commentary.
Spotify is trading 6.2% lower after Q2 earnings miss expectations even as premium subscribers reach 300 million. Revenue and users grow, but operating expense and Q3 operating-income guidance are not enough for a stock still priced for execution. Why it matters: SPOT tests whether subscription growth can offset profitability sensitivity in high-multiple internet names. What to watch: ad trends, AI/cloud spending, and premium-user guidance.
Snap is trading nearly 9% higher after its Q2 loss narrows, revenue beats at about $1.6 billion, and daily active users reach 493 million. The company is also getting credit for cost discipline and advertising progress. Why it matters: SNAP is a high-beta social-advertising read on whether smaller platforms can stabilize growth. What to watch: Q3 revenue guide, ad-load quality, and teen-safety regulatory headlines.
AMD is trading lower ahead of tonight's Q2 report even as consensus looks for roughly $11.3 billion of revenue and a sharp EPS increase. A recent Core Scientific partnership gives AMD dedicated AI infrastructure capacity, but the tape is cautious into the print. Why it matters: AMD is the post-close test for AI GPU, EPYC server, and capex-return expectations. What to watch: MI350 demand, Helios timing, and data-center margin guidance.
SpaceX is scheduled to deliver its first quarterly report as a public company after the close, keeping the June IPO and satellite-internet trade active. Analysts are focused on Starlink growth, launch cadence, and post-listing valuation. Why it matters: SPCX is a new retail-attention benchmark for space infrastructure and private-market liquidity. What to watch: Starlink subscribers, free-cash-flow trajectory, launch backlog, and any Tesla-related speculation response.
Prologis agrees to buy U.K. warehouse rival Segro for about $18.8 billion in mostly stock, with Segro holders receiving Prologis shares and a partial cash alternative. PLD is indicated near steady before the open. Why it matters: the deal expands Prologis's European logistics and data-center exposure. What to watch: shareholder approval, regulatory timing, and whether U.S. industrial REIT multiples firm.
Merck is trading modestly higher after a cleaner-than-feared Q2: sales reach about $16.6 billion, Keytruda remains resilient, and Winrevair grows sharply, while acquisition charges keep the full-year profit guide lower. Why it matters: MRK is a large-cap pharma read on oncology durability before the 2028 Keytruda patent cliff. What to watch: Keytruda Qlex uptake, Terns pipeline costs, and 9 a.m. ET call commentary.
BP's New York line is indicated higher after Q2 profit surges to about $5.7 billion, helped by elevated crude and trading conditions tied to Middle East supply disruption. The company is also shifting further toward fossil-fuel returns. Why it matters: BP connects the morning's oil rebound to a listed operating-company earnings catalyst. What to watch: asset-sale timing, debt targets, and crude's reaction to Hormuz updates.
HSBC's U.S. ADR is indicated lower even after quarterly profit jumps and the bank announces a $1 billion buyback, as investors judge the capital return against a strong 2026 run. Wealth and corporate banking are supporting results. Why it matters: HSBC is a global-bank read on rates, Asia wealth, and buyback expectations. What to watch: capital ratio detail and Hong Kong rate sensitivity.
More Stocks to Watch
Economic Events - ET
Earnings Today
Principal sources: NYSE holiday calendar; Trading Economics calendar; MarketWatch futures; WSJ live markets; Barron's live markets; MarketWatch movers; WSJ stocks to watch.

